Inflationary fears triggered a rise in Mortgage rates last week, and whats more, we may now be in for even higher rates after mortgage bonds fell through a key technical threshold (the 200 day moving average.) Though we did see some slightly better news on inflation last week – oil slipped in price, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure showed inflation holding at 2.1%, we are not out of the woods yet, and an inflationary trend punctuated with poor-but-not horrible economic data is not a recipe that results in lower rates very often.
In order for mortgage bond pricing to improve (recall that the price of mortgage bonds is where your mortgage rate is derived) we need some negative news out of the economic calendar this week. Monday Brings the ISM index – a measure of manufacturing activity, and Friday we have the May employment report. Mid week is mostly second tier data, though Ben Bernanke will deliver some potentially market moving words in a couple of scheduled speeches.