Monday Market Commentary: Mortgage rates continue to fall

by Alex Stenback on September 15, 2008

Sure, Lehman is gone, AIG and Merril Lynch are circling the drain, and these events are driving mortgage rates down, but there’s still an economic calendar to contend with this week, so let’s take a peak at what else may be in store for the mortgage market.

Last Week:
Mortgage rates moved a little over 1/2 point lower (in less than an hour) on Monday morning after the announcement that Fannie and Freddie would become the adopted children of the Federal Government.

That extraordinary event was followed by a week that played out in choppy fashion.  Rates never did manage to break below the lows set on Monday, and actually crept up by .125%-.25% by the close of business on Friday – Still markedly better on the week.

This Week:
For the second Monday in a row, an extaordinary and previously unimagineable event has been a benefit to mortgage rates.  The situation remains very fluid, of course, but it stands to reason that the financial landscape will have been altered tremendously by the time this week ends.

Against that backdrop, the economic calendar carries less weight than normal, though there are still potentially market moving events in the hopper.

Tuesday, September 16th —-
· Consumer Price Index
[8.30A] After last week’s tame PPI, this bears watching.  A cool reading on inflation could help mortgage rates.
· Fed Decision and Policy Statement [2.15P] No change to rates expected, though the tone and content of the policy statement often moves the market, and will be closely scrutinized.

Wednesday, Spetember 17th —-
· Housing Starts/Building Permits [8.30A]
Limited impact on mortgage rates, but it is housing related, so worth following. 

Thursday, September 18th —-
· Philadelphia Fed Index [10.00A] A manufacturing survey considered a proxy for the national manufacturing environment.  Strength here could help stocks, and hurt bonds, casuing a rise in mortgage rates.

We’ll check back in on these events through the week, but if you are interested in real time updates to the mortgage market as the week unfolds, subscribe to our twitter feed for simple, to-the-point updates via SMS or the web.

{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

Dan September 17, 2008 at 10:33 pm

Well this is not the end of selling. The markets have lot more downside to this. The credit mess and banking collapse will get worese. WAMU is next…..stay tuned

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