Using higher order mathematics and my degree in nothing whatsoever to do with statistics and research I have concluded that 76.4% of all news articles about real estate in the Twin Cities are about foreclosures.
Though that might not lead you to believe that 75% of everyone you know is going into foreclosure, the level of hysteria in the media over foreclosures might give one an exaggerated sense of their impact.
Which is why new University of Virginia Study is worth hoisting here It says:
“National housing price declines and foreclosures have not been as severe as some analyses have indicated, and they are not as important as financial manipulations in bringing on the global recession.”
“Although there are pockets of substantial declines, claims that overall housing values have tanked nationwide are exaggerated.”
“Most foreclosures have been concentrated in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona, and a modest number of metropolitan counties in other states. In fact, 66 percent of potential housing losses in 2008 and subsequent years may be in California, with another 21 percent in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona, for a total of 87 percent of national declines in these four states.”
Okay, so we can isolate California and Florida’s epic fails by pushing them into the ocean, but what of landlocked Nevada and Arizona? Making them Deserts so nobody would want to live there has obviously not worked as planned, so now what?
Also, check out the graphic from the study at the top of the post. Even the worst Metro county foreclosure and preforeclosure percentages do not crack 1.5% of housing stock. Granted, this is from 2007 data, but even if we double the figures across the board, it is still a relatively small slice of the whole, and that will probably surprise a few of you.