From the category archives:

Economy

How a Weak Dollar May Strengthen Our Real Estate Market

by Alex Stenback 09.12.2008

I prefer a strong dollar for eternity, but right now I feel about the dollar what St. Augustine felt about chastity. To paraphrase his notorious prayer, "Lord, make our dollar strong, but not just yet." – Bob McTeer, former President of Dallas Federal Reserve Bank —-Do you want a stronger dollar, or a weaker dollar?  [...]

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Beige Book Twin Cities: Weak, Sluggish, Not Strong

by Alex Stenback 09.03.2008

One of the ways we earn our keep around here is by reading things like the "Beige Book," so you don’t have to.  Here’s a summary of the none too pretty picture painted in our very own 9th Federal Reserve District: Summary: "Ninth District economic activity was stagnant since the last report. Decreased activity was [...]

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The Fed: Will They Or Won’t They?

by Alex Stenback 04.28.2008

Greg Ip at the Wall Street Journal outlines the case for and against a "pause" in Fed Cuts after this week. Argument for further Cuts: "There’s probably a recession going on, and the Fed may want additional insurance that the recession does not become an escpecially severe one." Argument against further cuts: "Additional interest rate [...]

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The Feds Big Bet: What it Might mean for Mortgage Rates

by Alex Stenback 02.29.2008

The other day, we kicked around the idea of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s condundrum: He is cutting rates, yet many long term rates – including fixed rate mortgages – are going up.  So, since Mr. B spent the last two days testifying before congress, it might be a worthwhile excercise to tease out his thoughts on [...]

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Another Conundrum: Will Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise in Spite of Fed Cuts?

by Alex Stenback 02.27.2008

A great graphic from today’s Wall Street Journal illustrating a fact that we’ve harped on around here for a while – that despite the recent flurry of Fed Cuts, mortgage rates have mostly moved in the opposite direction, and the housing market woes continue unabated: There are two reasons mortgage rates haven’t responded more to [...]

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PMI Risk Index: 19% Chance That Twin Cities Home Prices Will be Lower in Two Years

by Alex Stenback 01.15.2008

The above mentioned graphic and stats come from the folks at PMI, who publish the US Market Risk index (link – PDF!), which purports to tell us which markets are at greatest risk for price declines. How do they do this?  By comparing past historical data and trends in house price appreciation, affordability, housing supply, [...]

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Consumers, Well Acquainted with Mr. Frying Pan, Rush to Meet Mr. Fire

by Alex Stenback 08.23.2007

If you have any notion that our collective national jones for borrowed money at any cost and nearly any terms will be behind us once the market, the government, et al. deals with the mortgage mess, you might want to re-think things. For instance: You might assume, super-smart blog readers that you are (you are!), [...]

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Fedswirl: Nothing to See Here

by Alex Stenback 05.10.2007

Google news lists 895 news articles on yesterday’s (non-news-event-because-everybody-knew-what-was-going-to-happen) decision by the FOMC to leave rates unchanged, so it’s unlikely that you are hearing it from us first; but if you haven’t the stamina to wade through all of the coverage, here’s our grossly oversimplified executive summary: Rates Unchanged Because:1.  Economy is maybe/probably slowing.2.  Inflation [...]

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March Home Sales Report: You can dress it up, but…

by Alex Stenback 04.24.2007

The March existing home sales report hit the wires today, and Mike Larsen over at Interest Rate Roundup (another blog you should be reading) provides the best commentary we’ve seen today on it’s ugly data.  In brief: No amount of lipstick can make this pig of a home sales report look pretty. Sales dropped sharply. [...]

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